Macroeconomic forecasting in the euro area using predictive combinations of DSGE models

نویسندگان

چکیده

We provide a comprehensive assessment of the predictive power combinations dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models for GDP growth, inflation, and interest rate in euro area. employ battery static pooling weights based on Bayesian model averaging principles, prediction pools, factor representations, entertain six different DSGE specifications five weighting schemes. Our results indicate that exploiting mixtures produces competitive forecasts compared to individual both point density over last three decades. Although these do not tend systematically achieve superior forecast performance, we find improvements particular periods time variables when using pooling, averaging, synthesis.

برای دانلود باید عضویت طلایی داشته باشید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Combining Country-Specific Forecasts when Forecasting Euro Area Macroeconomic Aggregates

European Monetary Union (EMU) member countries’ forecasts are often combined to obtain the forecasts of the Euro area macroeconomic aggregate variables. The aggregation weights which are used to produce the aggregates are often considered as combination weights. This paper investigates whether using different combination weights instead of the usual aggregation weights can help to provide more ...

متن کامل

Forecasting Euro Area Macroeconomic Variables with Bayesian Adaptive Elastic Net

I use the adaptive elastic net in a Bayesian framework and test its forecasting performance against lasso, adaptive lasso and elastic net (all used in a Bayesian framework) in a series of simulations, as well as in an empirical exercise for macroeconomic Euro area data. The results suggest that elastic net is the best model among the four Bayesian methods considered. Adaptive lasso, on the othe...

متن کامل

Forecasting with DSGE Models

In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus on the estimation of their predictive distributions, with special attention being paid to the mean and the covariance matrix of h-steps ahead forecasts. In the empirical analysis, we examine the forecasting performance of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) that has been designed f...

متن کامل

Forecasting Euro-Area Macroeconomic Variables Using a Factor Model Approach for Backdating

We suggest to use a factor model based backdating procedure to construct historical Euro-area macroeconomic time series data for the pre-Euro period. We argue that this is a useful alternative to standard contemporaneous aggregation methods. The paper investigates for a number of Euro-area variables whether forecasts based on the factorbackdated data are more precise than those obtained with st...

متن کامل

Adaptive Learning and Macroeconomic Inertia in the Euro Area*

This article aims to study the determinants of macroeconomic inertia in the euro area. To this end, it estimates a simple monetary DSGE model with private-sector learning, but which also includes more structural sources of inertia, such as habit formation in consumption and inflation indexation. Economic agents are assumed to form nearrational expectations and to learn the model parameters over...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Forecasting

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1872-8200', '0169-2070']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.09.002